Trapping of sediment in the offshore area reduces the number of sources for the headland’s growth; on the other hand the rise of sea level further counterbalances the sedimentation around the headland. With a smaller sediment supply, the headland thus becomes ever narrower. The accelerated sea level

rise is not only responsible for the ‘thinning’ of the headland, but also causes significant changes in the Zingst area: this is mostly submerged by water in Scenario 3, leaving only several discrete sand flats. Hiddensee suffers a similar fate and is split into two main islands. Five new channels are formed in Scenario 3, selleck chemicals two of which are on Darss, two are on Zingst and one is in the Hiddensee area. The results of Scenario 3 also indicate that the Zingst coast is most sensitive to the accelerated sea level rise. The projected coastline in PI3K inhibitor Scenario 4 seems quite similar to Scenario 3, with minor differences (e.g. an average increased coastline retreat

of 30 m on Darss compared to Scenario 3) in most parts. The largest difference of the coastline between these two scenarios lies in the headland. The headland projected by Scenario 4 becomes broader than in Scenario 3: this is due to the increased storm frequency, which provides additional sediment sources for the headland, even though a large part of the sediment is trapped in the offshore area. Another difference between Scenarios 3 and 4 is the offshore area. Scenario 4 induces more sedimentation in the offshore area as a result of the increased storm frequency. This is especially evident in mafosfamide the Zingst area, where the 5 m and 7.5 m isobaths extend about 190 m

and 110 m northwards respectively. A plot of the profiles perpendicular to the coastline can help to show more details of the cross-shore changes induced by different climate scenarios. In Figure 11, changes of the profile located on the Darss coast are compared. The horizontal resolution of the profiles is about 100 m in the coastline area (between –100 m and 500 m in the cross-shore direction shown in Figure 11) and gradually decreases to 300 m at the 13 m isobath. Resolution of the further offshore area is about 400 m. Projection results indicate remarkable profile changes in the nearshore and offshore areas. All four scenarios anticipate erosion in the nearshore area (where the water depth is less than 3 m) and deposition in the adjacent offshore area. A longshore bar develops as a result of sedimentation in the offshore area. The position of the longshore bar is not always fixed: it moves upwards as the sea level rises, along with further development.