g , Annamalai et al , 2007, Fan et al , 2010, Kripalani et al , 2

g., Annamalai et al., 2007, Fan et al., 2010, Kripalani et al., 2007, Kumar et al., 2011 and Sabade et al., 2011). The simulated rainfall response to global warming by climate models is actually accompanied by a weakening of the southwest monsoon (e.g., Kripalani et al., 2003, Krishnan et al., 2013, Sabade et al., 2011, Stowasser et al., 2009 and Ueda et al., 2006). However, Rupakumar et al. (2006) have studied the effect of climate change in India by evaluating the present day simulation (1961–1990) of the

PRECIS climate model and have reported an increase in extreme rainfall along the west coast and check details western parts of central India. Several studies have investigated the vulnerability of Mumbai in the present and future climatic scenarios. Over the coming

decades, the pressures of urbanisation may be aggravated by manmade climate change and increase in greenhouse gases. In the future, an increase in rainfall volume and/or intensity could increase the risk of severe flooding. Global Climate Models (GCMs) give a divergent picture of how precipitation will change in Northwest India over this century. The ensemble mean of the GCM projections assessed in IPCC (2007) suggests a small average increase in the summer precipitation (roughly 5% of 1990 levels by the 2090s), however this small average masks large positive and negative changes projected by individual models. Ranger et al. (2011) have presented

a grim picture of Mumbai flooding and consequent economic losses during July 2005 floods and further analysed the situation selleckchem in future scenarios. Further the authors have stressed the need to consider the implications of PAK5 uncertainties in climate projections for adaptation planning in Mumbai. The authors have advocated the use of multiple projections from a range of available Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models as a single scenario of future climate is by itself not adequate to inform robust adaptation decisions. This present study, to the knowledge of the authors, is the only study being conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on the potential impacts of extreme rainfall in study area using data from several climate models. Many studies worldwide have described the possible impacts of climate change on urban drainage infrastructures and analysed the specific impacts on various urban areas, e.g. (Mailhot et al., 2007 and Willems et al., 2012). These possible impacts could have serious implications for Mumbai, the economic hub of India. In this study, we analyse the change of various precipitation statistics due to climate change for the city of Mumbai. General circulation models (GCMs) are currently the best way to model the complex climate processes that occur at the global scale, i.e. for studying possible future changes in climate mean, variability, and extremes (Huntingford et al., 2005).

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